Bitcoin fell below $67,000 this week, marking its weakest level since August. The decline coincides with significant outflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs as the Anthropic IPO approaches its pricing on November 18 and trading debut on November 19.
According to data circulating in the crypto community, approximately $2.35 billion has flowed out of US spot Bitcoin ETFs over the past two weeks. BlackRock's IBIT fund led the exodus, recording 11 consecutive days of redemptions and accounting for roughly 90% of November's outflows. The theory gaining traction is that investors are raising cash for their Anthropic IPO allocations, with order books reported to be about six times oversubscribed for a raise of up to $64.4 billion.
Macro conditions have compounded selling pressure. Fed Governor Christopher Waller's support for a December rate hike pushed CME FedWatch odds of such a move to 96.3%, while a broader tech sell-off has weighed on risk assets. Bitcoin liquidations exceeded $1.6 billion earlier this week.
The SpaceX Precedent
Bitcoin experienced a strikingly similar cycle ahead of SpaceX's $75 billion IPO in June. In that episode, Bitcoin fell approximately 28% from its May peak before bottoming near $59,000 a week before the listing. Bitcoin touched a low of $59,375 on June 5. Following the June 12 trading debut, Bitcoin climbed about 8% and eventually rallied around 37% from that low.
More than $5.72 billion in spot Bitcoin ETF redemptions occurred since mid-May, tied to investors freeing capital for the SpaceX offering. Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen overlaid Bitcoin's price movements in the 30 days before and after the SpaceX IPO with its performance in the roughly 30 days leading to the Anthropic listing, finding the two patterns moved almost in lockstep through the initial period.
If the pattern holds, more selling could occur around November 19, but it would suggest the market is in the late stages of the drawdown rather than the beginning.
Why Anthropic Could Pressure Bitcoin Less
Two factors may reduce selling pressure compared to the SpaceX episode. First, Anthropic expects to allocate up to 20% of its IPO shares to retail investors, roughly $11.55 billion to $12.87 billion at its price range. SpaceX initially planned to allocate around 30% of a much larger deal before trimming it to the low 20% range. A smaller retail pool requires less cash raising, potentially reducing crypto selling.
Second, Anthropic's separate $26 billion private placement is being funded by its own compute suppliers, including Nvidia, Google, and Microsoft. This corporate funding draws from balance sheets rather than the investor cash pool that might otherwise be deployed in bitcoin.
Key Price Levels
Bulls are watching $70,000 as the first critical level. Reclaiming it would signal buyers reentering after the sharp decline. Above that, $76,000 represents the next key hurdle, followed by the $80,000 to $82,000 resistance range.
On the downside, this week's low near $67,000 is the level to hold. A break below it could open a move toward the $59,000 to $60,000 area, matching the zone where Bitcoin bottomed before the SpaceX listing.
The IPO effect is not the sole driver of Bitcoin's price action. Continued pressure from the Fed's rate decision and ongoing tech sector weakness could limit Bitcoin's recovery even as IPO-related selling pressure subsides.
