Bitcoin is trading around $82,164 on Monday, holding near a key technical support level after rising to $83,040 earlier in the day. The cryptocurrency remains under pressure from a combination of macroeconomic headwinds affecting broader financial markets.
Oil prices near $108 a barrel, following weekend attacks on Persian Gulf tankers and Russian crude facilities, are contributing to inflationary pressures. The consumer price index rose 3.7% in September compared to a year earlier, while the producer price index jumped 6.3%, marking the largest annual increase since 2022. These figures have kept alive the possibility of further Federal Reserve interest rate increases, with markets pricing in roughly a 15% chance of a quarter-point hike next week.
Treasury yields have climbed in tandem with rate-hike expectations. The 10-year yield sits at 5.08% and the 2-year at 4.72%, according to CNBC data. Higher yields on near-risk-free government bonds compete directly with stocks and cryptocurrencies for investor capital. The dynamic has also raised borrowing costs for technology companies that took on significant debt to fund artificial intelligence infrastructure buildouts.
The pressure has extended to equities. The Nasdaq Composite fell more than 2% on Friday, closing out its worst week since June. Companies exposed to AI spending faced steeper declines, including AMD down 6% and Micron down 5.6% on the day. CoreWeave, which rents AI computing capacity, lost approximately 24% over the week.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced outflows of roughly $910 million over two weeks, reflecting broader market caution.
Technical Outlook
Bitcoin sits at the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level at $81,603. Technical indicators suggest a compressed trading environment with limited directional conviction. The Average Directional Index reads 21.6, below the 25 threshold that indicates a firm trend, while the Relative Strength Index sits at 49.3, neutral between bullish and bearish positioning. The Squeeze Momentum Indicator has been active for 13 days, signaling compressed volatility.
A daily close below $81,603 would open lower support levels. Bulls would need closes above $83,330 and $84,246 to establish upward momentum. The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting and major earnings announcements this week are expected to influence near-term price action.
