Bitcoin is up approximately 7% in September following a 25% gain in August. With two calendar days remaining in the month, a positive close would break a pattern that has held since 2013, wherein every previous positive August was followed by a negative September.
A positive finish for September would secure three consecutive monthly gains for bitcoin spanning July through September. It would also position the third quarter up by more than 40%, marking its first positive quarter since the third quarter of 2025.
Historically, the fourth quarter has been bitcoin's strongest period, with CoinGlass data indicating an average gain of roughly 77%. Currently trading at $84,000, bitcoin enters the final quarter against a volatile macroeconomic backdrop.
Global bond yields are rising, with the U.S. 10-year yield holding above 5.2% and the MOVE bond market volatility index exceeding 100, nearing year-to-date highs. Additionally, oil prices remain above $90 a barrel, contributing to inflation concerns, while gold declined about 3% on Monday to just above $4,000 an ounce.
The fourth quarter also features significant events that could test liquidity and risk appetite:
- Anthropic IPO: Reported plans for a November initial public offering could draw investor attention and capital to a major new equity listing, though the timing and size are not yet finalized.
- U.S. Midterm Elections: The November elections could introduce additional market volatility as investors evaluate the evolving policy outlook.
