Bitcoin's short-term Open Interest has fallen below its long-term average, marking the second such decline since August despite the leading cryptocurrency trending higher over that period.
The 7-day moving average of Bitcoin Open Interest dropped below the 365-day moving average in early October. This mirrors a similar OI decline in October 2025, when the bull market began to retreat. The first drop occurred on August 25th, followed by a brief recovery in early September when market participants entered derivatives markets in greater numbers.
Institutional Selling Pressures Sentiment
Crypto spot ETF flows have posted consecutive weeks of outflows. The week ending October 9th recorded $678.9 million in outflows, followed by $228.4 million in the subsequent week. Despite these recent outflows, the 30-day net flow remained positive at 15.4k BTC, indicating longer-term institutional interest has not completely reversed.
Inflows have also shrunk, pointing to reduced demand alongside the outflow trend. Market participants have maintained a cautious stance as both Open Interest and spot ETF flow data suggest.
Weak Spot Demand Threatens Recovery
Exchange Bitcoin reserves rebounded in October but remain low compared to levels at the start of the year. More significantly, spot demand has weakened again after briefly approaching zero earlier in the month, continuing a negative trend.
Futures demand has provided some support to overall demand metrics. However, a durable Bitcoin recovery would require a combination of ETF inflows, recovered spot demand, and continued accumulation by holders—conditions not yet firmly in place.
