Bitcoin has recovered to near $86,000, reclaiming its 365-day moving average around $80,500, a level historically associated with stronger market conditions. The recovery has renewed discussion among traders and analysts about whether the cryptocurrency can reach $100,000.
Analyst PlanB outlined a scenario suggesting bitcoin could reach $100,000 in October, with potential movement above its previous record of $126,000 before the end of the year. PlanB framed the path as "food for thought" rather than a firm prediction. Prediction markets cited in discussions currently assign roughly a 40% probability to bitcoin reaching $100,000 before year-end.
Cycle Debate Remains Unresolved
Disagreement persists over how bitcoin's recovery fits traditional four-year price cycles. Analyst Layah Heilpern noted that bitcoin peaked on October 6, 2025, roughly aligning with historical four-year cycle patterns. Previous major bottoms arrived 12 to 13 months after peaks, potentially placing the next cyclical low between early October and mid-November.
Historical data shows the 2013 cycle took approximately 406 days to reach its final low, while the 2017 and 2021 cycles required roughly 364 and 376 days respectively. However, analytics firm Glassnode observed that the current downturn diverges from historical patterns. Unlike previous downturns, which were more than twice as deep at comparable stages, bitcoin remains roughly 30% below its peak and is recovering.
On-Chain Selling Remains Controlled
On-chain behavior provides a different perspective. Glassnode data show net realized profit at levels last seen in late 2023, well below the heavy profit-taking associated with previous market peaks. Recent rallies have produced lighter selling than comparable moves during 2024 and 2025.
Short-term bitcoin holders are largely profitable, but realized gains remain contained, suggesting investors are distributing coins gradually rather than exiting positions urgently. Market participants describe this as constructive as long as new demand continues to absorb available supply.
Key Question: Support or Retest
The immediate focus centers on whether bitcoin can maintain its position above the long-term moving average and establish the mid-$80,000 range as support. If profit-taking remains controlled and new demand persists, analysts argue the path toward $100,000 becomes more viable. If traditional four-year cycle patterns reassert themselves, however, bitcoin may face additional testing before the downturn concludes.
