Bitcoin's recovery is showing uneven momentum, with exchange reserves rising modestly and spot demand weakening, according to CryptoQuant data. The mixed signals suggest that while some conditions supporting a base remain in place, buying strength is not yet consistent across the market.
Exchange reserves—the amount of Bitcoin held on trading platforms—have risen from approximately 2.67 million BTC in early October to around 2.68 million BTC. Despite this increase, reserves remain low compared with January levels. The rise is modest and comes from a low base, which analysts note does not necessarily indicate selling pressure, as transfers may reflect custody changes rather than liquidations.
A more pressing concern is spot demand, which represents direct Bitcoin purchases. The 30-day demand chart shows spot demand approaching zero before turning negative again. Meanwhile, perpetual futures demand remains positive, indicating that derivative activity is outpacing direct market purchases. Sustained positive spot demand is considered a key condition for a durable recovery, as it would reflect buyers acting directly in the market rather than through leveraged instruments.
Whale Holdings Show Mixed Accumulation
Holders of 100–1,000 BTC have remained net accumulators over the past 60 days, though buying sits below late-September peaks. The 1,000–10,000 BTC cohort has seen net holding declines narrow toward zero. However, the largest cohort of holders above 10,000 BTC continues to show negative net holdings, indicating these whales have not yet turned to accumulation.
For a durable Bitcoin recovery, accumulation must broaden across holder groups. Currently, buying is concentrated among mid-sized holders, which suggests the recovery remains incomplete. A sustained rally would require buying momentum to expand to larger holder cohorts and demonstrate a lasting base of buyer support across the market.
