Bitcoin traded at $78,524 on Tuesday, down 0.72%, while the S&P 500 closed at 7,689.80, down 0.37%, as oil prices pushed toward $100 a barrel following renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities in the Strait of Hormuz.
The broader market downturn stems from August employment data released Friday, which showed U.S. employers added 162,000 positions—nearly triple the 53,000 economists had forecast. The stronger-than-expected jobs report shifted trader sentiment, with futures markets now pricing a roughly 57-59% probability of a Federal Reserve rate increase at its September 15-16 meeting.
Rising oil prices typically feed into inflation through increased shipping and manufacturing costs, complicating the Fed's interest rate decision. Higher borrowing costs would generally weigh on risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, as investors typically shift toward safer holdings when lending becomes more expensive.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 614.88 points, or 1.15%, to 52,799.37, while the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.19% to 26,457.73. The S&P 500 remains within striking distance of its August 13 record close of 7,798.99.
Bitcoin opened Tuesday at $79,090 and retreated to a session low of $77,603 before settling at $78,524. The pullback follows a recent climb from $68,858 to an $82,281 high, with the cryptocurrency trading above the key support band between $73,986 and $75,569.
Technical indicators show the Relative Strength Index at 60.4, down from 66.1 a week earlier, while the Average Directional Index reads 47.2, indicating a sustained trend. The 50-day exponential moving average remains below the 200-day version, a bearish crossover that has persisted since before August's gains began.
On prediction markets, traders continue pricing a 78.4% probability that Bitcoin reaches $84,000 before falling to $55,000, a sentiment largely unchanged from a week prior despite recent price volatility.
