Bitcoin and ether quarterly options worth roughly $18 billion are set to expire Friday, with the cryptocurrency options market bracing for potential shifts in dealer hedging flows and short-term volatility.
The bitcoin expiry alone represents $15.9 billion in notional value, according to Deribit CEO Luuk Strijers. This settlement will clear 37% of Deribit's total bitcoin open interest, currently around $43.5 billion. Ether options expiring Friday total $2.1 billion.
The positioning heading into expiry is decidedly bullish. The September contract carries a put-to-call open interest ratio of 0.69, indicating more call options than puts. Of the $9.4 billion in bitcoin call notional set to expire, 55% are currently in the money—meaning they have intrinsic value. Put options, by contrast, are almost entirely underwater.
Dealer Hedging and Market Impact
Strijers highlighted how dealer hedging may have amplified bitcoin's recent rally through the $80,000–$87,000 range. Dealers who are short calls must purchase spot bitcoin as prices rise to remain hedged, effectively adding buying pressure to rallies.
Once this gamma and hedging flow rolls off after Friday's settlement, Strijers said the pinning effect will fade, potentially allowing short-term volatility to increase and the prevailing trading range to reset.
Strike Price Concentration and Support Levels
Open interest is heavily concentrated at specific strike prices. Call open interest clusters at $85,000, $90,000, $95,000, and $100,000 strikes. On the put side, defensive structures anchor at $60,000, $70,000, and $75,000, creating what Deribit's Chief Commercial Officer Jean-David Péquignot described as a multi-layered support floor.
The $70,000 strike has more open contracts than any other price level, with those calls now deep in the money.
Maximum Pain and Price Direction
The maximum pain level—the spot price at which option buyers would suffer the greatest losses—sits at $75,000, well below bitcoin's current price. Deribit characterized this level as a soft magnet for price into expiry.
Traders will monitor price action around $85,000 and how positions roll into October and December expiries following Friday's settlement.
