Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) could experience a significant decline to approximately $135 by early January 2027, according to a technical analysis published on TradingView on September 22. At the time of the analysis, Nvidia stock was trading at $228.
The forecast is based on an examination of Nvidia's long-term trading patterns within an 11-year ascending channel. The analysis identified two major corrections over the past decade, both in 2018 and 2022, that bottomed near the stock's weekly 200-week moving average—a level that currently suggests a potential downside target of $135.
Technical Setup and Support Levels
The current technical setup mirrors patterns that preceded the 2018 correction, according to the analysis. Since March 2026, the stock has repeatedly tested its weekly 50-week moving average while trading within an increasingly narrow range. The monthly Relative Strength Index (RSI) has formed lower highs since January 2017, and a bearish divergence indicates weakening momentum despite elevated prices.
If Nvidia fails to break above its current consolidation zone between the 0.618 and 0.786 Fibonacci levels, a new bearish leg could emerge. The weekly 100-week moving average near $175 is identified as the first major support level to watch.
Strong Fundamentals Contrast With Technical Outlook
The bearish technical forecast stands in sharp contrast to Nvidia's recent business performance. The company reported fiscal second-quarter 2027 revenue of $96.2 billion in August, representing 106% year-over-year growth. Data center revenue surged 117% to $89 billion, and the company guided for third-quarter revenue of approximately $108 billion.
Chief Executive Jensen Huang has maintained a bullish outlook, noting that demand remains strong across hyperscalers, enterprises, and sovereign AI initiatives. Nvidia's next-generation Vera Rubin platform is ramping into production, supporting expectations for continued growth through fiscal 2028.
