The debate over Bitcoin's market cycles has intensified as analysts question whether the asset's traditional four-year pattern—historically tied to the halving event—remains relevant.
Bitcoin's halving has historically occurred every four years and was long believed to drive a predictable market cycle. However, on-chain analyst Willy Woo recently argued that Bitcoin may be transitioning toward a different pattern: a six-to-eight-year cycle increasingly influenced by debt and liquidity conditions in traditional financial markets.
Diminishing Supply Shock
Woo's reasoning centers on how the halving's market impact has diminished over time. Following the April 2024 halving, new BTC issuance dropped to approximately 0.8% of existing supply annually. The next halving, scheduled for early 2028, will reduce that to roughly 0.4%.
As newly mined supply becomes less significant relative to the total market, Woo contends that the halving's ability to dictate Bitcoin's broader price cycle weakens. The asset may instead move more closely with traditional finance's six-to-eight-year short-term debt cycle.
Institutional Ownership Reshapes Market Structure
The market structure supporting Bitcoin has changed dramatically, particularly due to US spot Bitcoin ETFs. These financial products currently hold approximately 1.3 million BTC—over 6% of circulating supply. Public companies hold an additional million BTC.
Together, ETFs and corporate treasuries control nearly 12% of circulating Bitcoin, vastly exceeding the amount miners create annually. This concentration of ownership outside mining suggests that traditional financial dynamics may now play a larger role in price movements than halving-driven scarcity.
Mixed Views on Market Maturation
Other prominent figures have supported the idea that Bitcoin's four-year cycle is losing relevance. Arthur Hayes stated in 2025 that traders focus too heavily on the halving pattern, while Fidelity Digital Assets questioned in a report whether Bitcoin's maturing market could produce more gradual rallies and corrections rather than extreme boom-and-bust cycles.
However, not all researchers agree. Galaxy Research examined the same question in June 2024 and concluded that Bitcoin's four-year cycle remains visible in the data. The researchers noted that Bitcoin peaked in October 2025, roughly 18 months after the April 2024 halving—within the historical window.
Galaxy Research did observe that each cycle appears to be becoming less extreme. Previous bear markets saw drawdowns of approximately 85%, 84%, and 77%, while the decline to the July 1 low was considerably milder at just over 53%.
