Bitcoin has come under renewed pressure after its latest market decline, but one prominent analyst sees a historical pattern that could offer cautious optimism. Alex Thorn, Galaxy's head of firmwide research, highlighted a technical development that previously appeared during two major Bitcoin recoveries, suggesting the cryptocurrency might avoid establishing fresh bear-market lows.
In a November 9 post on X, Thorn noted that Bitcoin had just closed below its 50-week moving average after holding above it for seven consecutive weeks. The 50-week moving average is widely followed by traders as a gauge of longer-term market direction; a sustained move above it can indicate improving momentum, while a breakdown may signal renewed selling pressure.
Historical Parallels
Thorn pointed out that similar moves occurred during the 2011–2012 and 2019–2020 market cycles. In both instances, Bitcoin closed below its 50-week moving average after reclaiming it following a bear-market bottom, yet neither period produced a new lower low on a weekly closing basis.
The comparison is notable because Bitcoin has experienced significant volatility in recent weeks, leaving investors uncertain about the strength of its recovery. However, Thorn emphasized that historical comparisons have limitations. Only five recoveries above the 50-week moving average form the available sample, making it difficult to predict future price movements with certainty. He also acknowledged that identifying a definitive market bottom is only possible with hindsight.
What to Watch
According to Thorn, the next several weeks could be particularly important. In a follow-up post, he explained that his bullish technical outlook would remain valid if Bitcoin reclaimed its 50-week moving average within approximately one month, giving the cryptocurrency a relatively short window to demonstrate renewed buying strength.
Bitcoin's November 8 weekly close stood near $74,968, below its 50-week moving average of approximately $75,488. Meanwhile, the June 2026 weekly closing low near $59,517 remains an important reference point for the historical comparison.
A sustained recovery above the moving average could strengthen the bullish outlook, especially as traders monitor key resistance levels and the possibility of a broader Bitcoin recovery. Thorn's optimism also extends beyond technical indicators; in an earlier report, he outlined a bullish investment thesis based on Bitcoin's fundamentals, market positioning, sentiment, and long-term potential.
Still, Bitcoin needs to demonstrate that buyers can defend important support levels and regain momentum. For now, the 50-week moving average remains a key technical level to watch.
