Bitcoin is trading well below its record high and has slipped over the past month as spot ETF demand cools, leaving two nearby price levels more relevant to its next move than distant long-term targets, according to a new outlook published this week.
The analysis, attributed to Sam Daodu and reported by 24/7 Wall St., weighs four scenarios for Bitcoin, from a modest gain to a $1 million price. It calls a climb to $150,000 by 2030 realistic and sees a range up to $250,000 as plausible, while treating the most extreme targets as unlikely.
Scarcity and Halving Cycles Underpin the Long-Term Case
The bullish thesis rests on scarcity, since almost all of Bitcoin's fixed supply is already in circulation. Halving cycles add to that case, with the next one expected in 2028.
Near-term demand, however, looks softer. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have logged a string of uneven days with notable outflows, leaving the long-term story dependent on whether large buyers return before the next leg of the cycle.
Support at $73,500 Faces a Likely Retest
Bitcoin now trades near $75,600, down about 12% over the past month. The nearest strong support sits near $73,500, while resistance stands much higher, around $84,400.
Technical indicators lean firmly bearish, so a retest of support looks more likely than a quick rebound. A break below $73,500 could open a path toward $69,500.
A move back above $84,400 would change the picture and bring the $90,000 area back into view.
What to Watch
- Whether buyers defend support near $73,500.
- Whether Bitcoin can recover above $84,400, which would put the longer-term bullish case on firmer ground.
- How ETF demand evolves, given its role in shaping how quickly the market can build toward longer-term targets.
The 2030 targets remain distant, and both Bitcoin's path and the outcomes of projects building around the market remain uncertain.
