Bitcoin has climbed 42% over the past three months, entering the fourth quarter on a clear uptrend that has prompted many analysts to forecast continued gains toward new all-time highs. However, an upcoming political event may complicate that outlook.
Analyst Ali Martinez has flagged the US midterm elections on November 3, 2026, as a potential catalyst for volatility. The midterms will determine control of Congress, which affects the president's legislative agenda and policy direction.
Historical Election Pattern
Martinez cited historical data showing Bitcoin price declines following previous midterm elections. According to his analysis, the cryptocurrency fell 72% after the 2010 midterms, 65% after 2014, 52% after 2018, and 27% after 2022.
"That does not prove elections caused the declines, but the pattern is worth watching ahead of November 3, 2026," Martinez stated.
Seasonal Q4 Volatility
The analyst also highlighted fourth-quarter seasonality trends. Bitcoin gained nearly 400% in Q4 2010 but posted losses of 16.7% in Q4 2014, 42.16% in Q4 2018, and 14.75% in Q4 2022.
"As Q4 begins, seasonality suggests investors should be prepared for volatility," Martinez warned.
Key Support Level
Martinez identified Bitcoin's short-term holder cost basis near $73,000 as a critical support zone that could be tested if historical post-midterm patterns repeat.
Analyst Perspective
Despite the cautionary signal, Martinez suggested the November dip may be temporary. He advised taking profits in late October ahead of expected strength to $100,000, then potentially buying again at $73,000 following the midterm elections if the historical pattern holds.
October traditionally has been bullish for Bitcoin, earning the nickname "Uptober." The asset has closed in the green in 10 of the past 13 Octobers.
