Bitcoin has declined approximately 4% from last Friday through Friday morning, tracking broader market weakness as U.S. equities closed lower throughout the week. Rising oil prices, increased U.S. bond yields, and escalating geopolitical conflict in the Middle East have pressured risk assets.
Technical Strength Despite Weekly Decline
Bitcoin has reclaimed its 20, 50, and 200-week exponential moving averages, a technical development historically not followed by new cycle lows. The asset also printed its first golden cross since May 2025, though analysts have noted such signals often precede corrections. The 90-day correlation between bitcoin and gold is approaching 2020 record levels, with both assets benefiting from debasement narratives.
Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Pressures
Kinetic conflict in the Middle East intensified this week, with reports of a possible Houthi pipeline attack involving at least three drone strikes. Qatar, which supplied roughly a fifth of global LNG before the conflict, is reportedly in talks to purchase U.S. LNG. Diesel prices have risen, affecting broader economic activity.
Treasury Secretary Bessent coordinated with Japan to address yen weakness, with the currency trading at the 160 USD/JPY level before declining to 153. Long-duration U.S. bond yields reached 4.96%, prompting increased Treasury buybacks with limited effect on longer-dated securities.
Crypto Market Activity and Security Concerns
Robinhood Chain generated approximately 1.9 billion in daily volume on Thursday, down from a 3 billion peak the previous week. Traditional finance companies continued integrating with crypto infrastructure, with Robinhood taking a minority stake in Crypto.com and Nasdaq investing in Kraken's parent at a $21 billion valuation.
Security incidents posed significant risks. Liquid Network reported approximately 4,000 BTC withdrawn from its federation wallet, with roughly 3,400 BTC subsequently returned. Trezor experienced a breach at a third-party email service, enabling phishing messages from its domain. A 22-year-old individual pleaded guilty in a $245 million crypto-theft case, and authorities reported a homicide in Mexico involving an attempted Bitcoin theft.
