Bitcoin is trading near $84,000 after failing for the third time in ten days to break above its yearly open of $87,700, which was reached on October 2. Bitfinex analysis suggests the next move will depend more on renewed spot demand than on increased futures leverage.
Futures Activity and Leverage Decline
Futures activity drove much of Bitcoin's recent moves, with open interest rising $2.1 billion ahead of the September payrolls report before falling $1.5 billion afterward as traders closed positions. Aggregate futures open interest now stands at approximately 625,000 BTC, its lowest level since January 1, indicating lower leverage across the market.
Spot ETF Demand Softens
US spot Bitcoin ETF net inflows have weakened considerably. From September 28 to October 2, ETFs recorded $241.1 million in net inflows, approximately 90% below the $2.39 billion recorded a week earlier. A nine-day inflow streak ended on September 30 with a $148.7 million outflow. BlackRock's IBIT recorded $450.2 million in inflows during this period, while Fidelity's FBTC saw $168 million in outflows.
Cost Basis and Key Support Levels
Bitfinex attributed weaker demand partly to the average ETF holder's cost basis of approximately $84,320. ETF inflows have averaged about $65 million when Bitcoin trades within 2% of that level, compared with $136 million when it trades more than 10% above it.
The $84,000 to $84,500 range holds roughly 867,000 BTC, representing the largest cost-basis cluster, with about 75% of Bitcoin supply currently in profit. Bitfinex identifies $86,000 as an important resistance level, while a drop below $82,600 could push ETF holders back into losses.
Outlook
Bitfinex expects Bitcoin to consolidate between $84,000 and the yearly open. Stronger ETF inflows could support a move toward $90,000, while sustained trading below $81,300 could bring $77,000 and the True Market Mean near $77,200 into focus.
