Bitcoin is attempting to reclaim the 2026 yearly open at $87,570 after reaching brief wicks to $87,000 on multiple exchanges. The asset recorded its highest weekly close since late January at $86,532 on Bitstamp, marking the fourth attempt to break above current resistance levels since September 21.
Technical analysts view $82,500 as critical support, with a break below potentially revisiting the previous 2026 range between $60,000 and $80,000. A decisive move above $86,700 could open the path to higher levels, with $93,700 identified as a potential ceiling for the next trading range.
Bond Markets and Federal Reserve in Focus
The 10-year and 30-year U.S. bond yields recently reached 5.34% and 5.69% respectively, levels not seen since 2002. These elevated yields reflect ongoing market dynamics as traders price in expectations for Federal Reserve policy.
The Federal Reserve will publish minutes from the September Federal Open Market Committee meeting on Wednesday, when officials voted to increase interest rates by 0.25%. Market expectations for further rate increases have shifted significantly, with odds of another 0.25% hike at the October meeting dropping from 70% one week prior to 18% at present.
Analysts suggest the Federal Reserve may maintain a hawkish stance through year-end despite near-term rate-cut expectations, citing persistent inflation and geopolitical factors affecting oil prices. The next Consumer Price Index reading is scheduled for October 14.
Historical October Seasonality
Bitcoin has historically performed well during October, averaging gains of 18.7% since 2013. The first three days of October typically represent the weakest period of the month historically, with an average decline of 0.66%. However, Bitcoin gained 1.4% during the first three days of October 2026, outperforming the historical average.
Over the past 13 years, October has produced only three negative months for Bitcoin, with the largest decline of 13% occurring in 2014.
