Bitwise has raised its 10-year Bitcoin price target to $1.6 million by 2036, up from $1.3 million previously, according to its updated Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report. The revision comes despite Bitcoin experiencing significant headwinds this year, including a decline of more than 50% between October 2025 and June 2026, when prices fell below $59,000.
CIO Matt Hougan and Head of Research Ryan Rasmussen used the same valuation model as the previous year but incorporated the latest market and economic data. The higher target reflects an increase in Bitcoin's projected compound annual growth rate from 28.3% to 34.3%.
Expanding Market Opportunity
Bitwise's increased bullishness stems from two primary factors: a larger addressable market for Bitcoin and its potential to capture a greater share of that opportunity.
The firm expanded its estimate of the store-of-value market over the next decade from $91 trillion to $110 trillion, reflecting concerns about fiat currency debasement and inflation. It also increased its projection for the institutional investment market from $216 trillion to $303 trillion. Estimates for other potential markets, including offshore wealth and emerging market currencies, also expanded.
On market share growth, Hougan cited several developments supporting Bitcoin's adoption. Wealth management platforms including Wells Fargo and Merrill Lynch have moved toward Bitcoin offerings, while central banks and sovereign wealth funds have shown increasing interest. Bitcoin's cyclical volatility has continued to decline, he noted.
Headwinds Acknowledged
Bitwise maintained its assumptions about Bitcoin's market share capture unchanged from the previous year, choosing not to increase them despite the bullish outlook. Hougan acknowledged significant counterarguments to the higher target.
Most capital flowing into store-of-value assets has gone into gold rather than Bitcoin. The latest market downturn again demonstrated the asset's vulnerability to sharp losses, and inflows into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have slowed.
Signs of Market Resilience
Despite these challenges, Bitwise pointed to metrics suggesting increased market resilience. Bitcoin's correlation with gold has increased, its recent peak-to-trough decline of 53% was shallower than losses in previous bear markets, and institutional investors continued adding exposure throughout the downturn despite slower ETF purchases.
Bitcoin's share of the store-of-value market has grown from less than 1% a decade ago to more than 5% today.
