The cryptocurrency market faces a critical week ahead with multiple macroeconomic catalysts and a significant options expiry event set to influence prices. The global crypto market cap currently stands at $2.75 trillion, down 1.6% over the past 24 hours, while Bitcoin has dipped below $80,000.
Federal Reserve Rate Decision
The Federal Open Market Committee will meet October 27–28 to decide on interest rates. CME FedWatch data indicates an 88% probability of no rate change at this meeting. The Fed raised rates by 0.25 percentage points in September to 3.75%–4%, marking the first increase in more than three years. Market participants will closely monitor Chair Kevin Warsh's press briefing for signals about future policy directions.
U.S. Economic Data Releases
October 29 will bring multiple economic reports. The September Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation report is expected to show headline inflation rising to 3.6% year-over-year from 3.4% in August. Monthly PCE is forecast at 0.5%, while core PCE is expected to increase 0.3% month-over-month and 3.1% annually.
Initial jobless claims for the week are also scheduled for release on October 29, expected to rise to 198,000 from 194,000 the previous week.
The U.S. third quarter 2026 GDP growth report will also release on October 29, with economists expecting growth between 3.0% and 3.2%, up from 2.2% in the second quarter.
Options Expiry Drives Volatility
Friday's options expiry adds another layer of market uncertainty. Approximately $11.1 billion to $12.2 billion in Bitcoin options are set to expire, with Bitcoin currently trading near $79,921 and $78,000 serving as a key support level.
Ethereum also faces an options expiry, with 322,586 contracts worth around $777 million set to expire. The reported max pain price is $2,500, while Ethereum is currently trading below $2,300.
