Bitcoin could find support near $30,000 even if major institutional investors unwind their positions, according to CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju. The scenario would require reversing roughly $58 billion in net inflows to US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds and liquidating the 1.3 million BTC held across publicly traded companies.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs have attracted $56.95 billion in cumulative net inflows through October 16, while public companies hold 1.302 million BTC across 180 treasuries, representing approximately 6.2% of Bitcoin's maximum supply and worth roughly $106 billion at recent prices. Strategy, led by Michael Saylor, accounts for 848,250 BTC—approximately 65% of all public-company holdings.
Ju's assessment relies on Bitcoin's market-value-to-realized-value ratio, or MVRV, which compares current market capitalization to the aggregate price at which coins last moved on-chain. Bitcoin's realized price stood near $53,855 on October 18. A $30,000 market price would produce an MVRV of approximately 0.56, associated with deep capitulation. Ju noted that Bitcoin's worst historical bottom occurred around 0.6 MVRV, with readings near 0.55 in January 2015 and approximately 0.46 in November 2011.
The CryptoQuant founder's position contrasts sharply with Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone's October 16 forecast of a potential $10,000 floor. McGlone argued that Bitcoin's rise above $100,000 in 2025, combined with gold surging past $5,000 and rising government bond yields, could signal a reversal across risk assets. A move to $10,000 would represent a decline of nearly 88% from approximately $81,500.
Recent activity shows early signs of institutional pressure. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded over $900 million in net outflows across the two weeks ending October 16. Additionally, MSCI's new index eligibility criteria threaten to exclude Strategy from global benchmarks, with a JPMorgan November 2025 scenario estimating about $2.8 billion in passive sales of its shares if removed.
