Options traders on the Derive platform have revised their outlook for Bitcoin, assigning a higher probability to the cryptocurrency ending the year below $70,000.
Shift in odds
Derive’s data now shows a 31% chance that Bitcoin will close under $70,000 by Christmas, compared with 15% the previous week. At the same time, the probability of finishing above $80,000 fell from 53% to 26%.
More ambitious price targets also saw reduced odds: the chance of Bitcoin exceeding $90,000 by Christmas dropped to 6% from 18%, and the likelihood of a six‑figure price by December fell to 1% from 5%.
Put demand rises
Puts now represent 55% of total premiums traded on Derive, up from 36% a week earlier, indicating increased demand for downside protection.
Overall options trading volume on the platform rose 37% week‑over‑week to $418 million.
Notable hedge
A single wallet spent roughly $14,000 to protect 300 BTC against a price drop below $60,000 by November 27.
Market context
The shift comes amid concerns about U.S. inflation and potential Federal Reserve rate hikes, as well as Bitcoin’s fifth consecutive weekly loss, with the price trading around $73,500.
Implications for participants
Higher put activity suggests traders are allocating more capital to protect against downside moves. Longer‑term holders see a diminished likelihood of reaching $100,000 by year‑end, while active traders are focusing on the $70,000 level as a key reference point.
