Crowd sentiment toward Ethereum (ETH) and XRP has turned negative as October begins, according to data from Santiment. Bearish comments now outnumber bullish ones for both altcoins across major social platforms including X, Telegram, and Reddit.
Santiment tracks the ratio of bullish to bearish commentary, where a reading below 1.0 indicates that negative posts form the majority. Ethereum's ratio dropped to 0.89, marking its lowest reading since June 7. XRP fell further to 0.67, representing its weakest level since August 17. In contrast, Bitcoin sentiment registered at 1.37, while the broader Crypto Fear & Greed Index from Alternative.me stood at 72 in the Greed territory, up from 63 a month prior.
Santiment noted that heavy pessimism can occasionally create a contrarian setup if panic selling has already occurred, though it emphasized that low sentiment readings do not guarantee an immediate price bounce.
Mixed Fund Flows and Network Data
On-chain metrics and fund flows present a mixed picture for the tokens. Ethereum network activity has shown an increase, with mean base fees rising 193% week-over-week and the staking rate climbing from 35.53% to 35.92% over a 14-day period. However, the Coinbase Premium Index has remained negative for 14 consecutive sessions, which analyst CryptoOnchain interpreted as a sign that US institutional buyers are not driving market movements.
US spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded three consecutive days of net outflows through October 1, totaling approximately $117.8 million, following a prior seven-session streak of inflows worth about $850.7 million. Spot XRP ETFs have performed differently, avoiding outflows since September 18 and adding $4.07 million on October 1, although two of the preceding four sessions recorded zero net flows.
Historical Seasonality and Upcoming Catalysts
XRP entered October following a milestone quarter in which July, August, and September all closed positive for the first time, lifting the token over 43%. Despite this, historical seasonality presents challenges; CryptoRank data indicates that XRP closed October lower in 8 of the past 13 years.
CryptoOnchain noted that a positive Coinbase premium would serve as a clearer indicator of returning US demand for Ethereum. Meanwhile, XRP's potential catalysts are concentrated in the final week of October, which includes Ripple’s Swell conference and a Federal Reserve meeting scheduled for October 27 to 28.
