Ethereum Rallies Amid Broad Market Gains
Over a recent seven-day period, Ethereum rose by nearly 31%, trading around $2,495. Despite this movement, major altcoin-season trackers have not declared the onset of an altseason, leaving traders to weigh a fast Ethereum rally against gauges remaining in neutral territory.
At the time of reporting, Ethereum traded around $2,494.68, reflecting a 2.59% increase on the day and a 31.01% gain over the week. Bitcoin traded near $78,411, securing a weekly gain of 23.25%. Other prominent tokens like XRP and Zcash (ZEC) outperformed Ethereum over the same seven-day window, with XRP up about 49% and ZEC gaining roughly 64%.
Despite these gains, Bitcoin maintains its market leadership, holding over 59% of the total market share, while Ethereum commands approximately 11.4%. Funds have not clearly rotated away from Bitcoin, and overall market sentiment remains stretched, with CoinMarketCap’s Fear and Greed Index registering a reading of 80 out of 100.
How Altcoin Season Is Measured
Standardized tracking indexes define when an altcoin season is officially underway. CoinMarketCap designates an altseason only when at least 75% of the top 100 cryptocurrencies outperform Bitcoin over a rolling 90-day period. Conversely, when 25% or fewer outperform Bitcoin, the period is labeled a Bitcoin season.
BlockchainCenter applies a similar threshold to the top 50 coins, requiring at least 75% of them to outperform Bitcoin over 90 days. Recently, BlockchainCenter's gauge sat at 43, falling below the required altseason threshold. According to the platform's count, it has been over 332 days since the last recorded altcoin season, with both indexes excluding stablecoins and asset-backed wrappers such as Tether, WBTC, and stETH.
Meanwhile, analytics firm Glassnode noted on X that the altcoin market entered a state of optimism, reporting that 85% of altcoins pushed funding rates above their mean, representing the highest reading for that metric since Bitcoin reached previous all-time highs.
Analyst Outlooks and Recent History
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes noted in an interview that Ethereum is his second-largest holding after Bitcoin. Hayes stated that Ethereum's failure to reclaim its 2021 high leaves room for catch-up and carries less risk than smaller tokens. He suggested that a break above $3,000 could lead to further price increases and stated that Ethereum could potentially outperform other large-cap assets in a liquidity-driven rebound, potentially helping reduce Bitcoin's market dominance toward 40%.
Caution among analysts stems from recent historical trends. Earlier in the year, altcoin selling reached significant levels, with market data showing that over 84% of altcoins traded below their 200-day moving average during an extended stretch following the 2022 bear market. CryptoQuant analyst Darkfrost observed that altcoins have remained closely correlated to Bitcoin, meaning strong Bitcoin performance no longer automatically pulls the broader market up, favoring short and narrow rallies in liquid assets over broad market runs.
