Ethereum's price cracked below $2,600 on Wednesday as U.S. spot ether exchange-traded funds logged a sixth straight day of redemptions totaling roughly $405 million to $408 million. The sell-off left ether trading around $2,550 to $2,580, down approximately 4.7% to 5.5% for the day, with 24-hour trading volume between $15 billion and $19 billion.
Long liquidations added pressure to the decline, with approximately $155 million to $165 million in ether positions liquidated as prices fell. The $2,500 to $2,560 zone has emerged as the near-term support level.
Prediction Markets Send Mixed Signals
Three major prediction markets are offering strikingly different views on ethereum's path forward, each operating under different parameters.
Polymarket assigns a 49% probability that ether reaches $3,000 before the end of 2026, based on roughly $17.3 million in volume on its year-end contract. Downside risks show a 37% chance of touching $2,250 and a 20% chance of hitting $2,000 before year-end.
Myriad's ethereum contract frames the question differently, asking whether ether will reach $3,000 or $1,500 first with no expiration date. Traders currently assign a 73.7% probability to the $3,000 outcome, with $1,500 at 26.3%, based on $152,000 in volume.
Kalshi's year-end forecast sits near $2,720, with over $12.1 million in volume. Settlement is based on the average of 60 seconds of CF Benchmarks' ETHUSD Real Time Index immediately before midnight EST on January 1, 2027.
The divergent forecasts reflect different market structures and timeframes rather than fundamental disagreement. Prediction marketplace participants remain engaged with ethereum's prospects but disagree on both the timeline and probability of specific price levels.
