Bitcoin has transitioned into a new bull market regime following a rapid surge in CryptoQuant's Bull Score from 30 to 80 within a single week. According to the analytics firm, this marks the fastest reversal seen in the past year.
Despite the swift shift, one major hurdle remains before the trend is officially confirmed. Bitcoin must close above its 365-day moving average, which is currently positioned near the $83,000 mark.
Macro Catalysts and Rally Details
The recent price movement was driven by a 24% rally that began on Monday, August 17, pushing Bitcoin to an intraday peak of $81,272 on Binance—its highest level since May 15, 2026. At press time, BTC traded near $79,224, reflecting a 1.9% gain over a 24-hour period.
Two primary macroeconomic catalysts fueled the momentum. First, the US Treasury announced plans to double long-term bond buybacks to at least $4 billion per operation starting September 9. Second, markets reacted to a hint regarding a potential Bitcoin purchase by Donald Trump, suggesting Washington might buy BTC directly.
CryptoQuant's Bull Score, which combines 10 on-chain and market metrics, reached its most bullish reading since October 6, 2025, when Bitcoin traded at $124,000. Currently, eight of the ten inputs are flashing green. Demand data also indicates that apparent spot demand is expanding at its fastest monthly pace since late December, with spot and futures demand growing simultaneously for the first time since early October 2025.
Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, noted that while the market regime has switched to bullish and nearly all metrics point to the initial phase of a new bull market, the price still needs to cross above the 365-day moving average at $83,000 for official confirmation.
Short-Term Overheating Signals
Even as metrics flash bullish signals, the report warns of short-term overheating risks. Trader unrealized profit margins have climbed to 20.5%, representing the highest level since June 2025. Additionally, large holders, or whales, realized a record $614 million in profits on August 20, while exchange inflows for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP have increased—a trend that frequently precedes selling pressure.
Broader institutional risk appetite remains robust. Asset managers hold nearly $375 billion in long S&P 500 futures, remaining near record highs and sitting roughly $20 billion below the peak recorded in May 2026. Exposure to emerging and developed markets is also sitting at or near record levels.
Ultimately, the rally follows Bitcoin's strongest weekly close since 2024. Whether the market secures confirmation above $83,000 will depend on overcoming these resistance levels while managing potential corrections from rising exchange inflows.
