Bitcoin has rallied sharply in recent weeks, but asset manager Fidelity warns the bear market may not yet be concluded.
In a new report, Fidelity's Chris Kuiper, Vice President of Research at Fidelity Digital Assets, noted that while bitcoin could have already bottomed in July, it may also decline further to reach a new low in November or later. Kuiper cautioned that bitcoin cycles historically have not been precisely four years long, making them unreliable for timing the market.
Bitcoin's price recently stood at close to $81,639, up nearly 30% over a 30-day period. The rally began in mid-August following an announcement from the U.S. Treasury Department regarding increased government debt repurchases. Throughout June and July, bitcoin had traded below $65,000 with muted volatility.
Some observers have argued that the recent performance indicates bitcoin has exited its bear market, particularly given that the asset touched a record high of $126,080 in October of the previous year.
Kuiper identified regulatory developments as a key factor for bitcoin's near-term direction. He highlighted the importance of the crypto Clarity Act, which proponents argue could provide greater regulatory certainty and support continued innovation in the U.S. digital asset ecosystem. President Donald Trump in August urged lawmakers to advance the bill, which he described as very powerful after meeting with crypto industry representatives.
Lawmakers are scheduled to vote on the legislation this month. The digital asset industry has long sought clear regulatory rules governing bitcoin, stablecoins, and other cryptocurrencies.
