Former federal prosecutor Renato Mariotti said conversations with members of Congress and their staff have convinced him that support for the CLARITY Act has collapsed. During recent visits to Washington, D.C., Mariotti said multiple people directly told him "CLARITY is dead."
The CLARITY Act aims to establish clearer regulatory rules for the U.S. cryptocurrency market. Disagreements among lawmakers have made advancing the legislation increasingly difficult.
The bill faces a Senate cloture vote scheduled for September 15, but momentum appears to be fading. The House has canceled two full weeks of sessions in September, leaving lawmakers with only 14 active working days before the October election recess—limiting time for debate, reconciliation, and a final vote if the Senate advances the bill.
Industry observers have grown skeptical of the bill's prospects. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan characterized it as "walking dead," suggesting that while the bill cannot formally fail, its progress has stalled significantly.
As congressional action has slowed, U.S. regulators have proceeded independently. The SEC is developing a separate crypto rules framework, while the CFTC is creating its own regulations for cryptocurrency and prediction markets.
Prediction markets reflect the declining confidence in the legislation. Polymarket contracts currently estimate the probability of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 at between 13% and 18%, a sharp decline from above 80% earlier in the year.
