Ripple veteran David Schwartz recently stated that XRP could eventually overtake Bitcoin by market capitalization. However, he emphasized that such a development would require specific conditions and would not result from Bitcoin's decline.
During a recent X Spaces discussion, Schwartz, the architect of the XRP Ledger, outlined his reasoning. He argued that for XRP to surpass Bitcoin, two major developments would need to occur: the broader cryptocurrency market would have to expand dramatically, and XRP would need to grow considerably faster than Bitcoin due to the XRP Ledger's functionality, adoption, and real-world usage.
The Mathematical Challenge
Current market figures illustrate the scale of the obstacle. Bitcoin's market capitalization stands at approximately $1.55 trillion, while XRP's is around $87 billion—making the market leader roughly 18 times larger.
If Bitcoin's valuation remained unchanged, XRP would need to reach a $1.55 trillion market cap to match it. At current circulating supply levels, this would require XRP to surge to approximately $24–$25 from around $1.40 today.
Schwartz's scenario makes the hurdle even steeper. He does not expect Bitcoin to remain stagnant; rather, he anticipates the entire cryptocurrency market could expand, meaning Bitcoin would likely continue appreciating alongside other assets.
Historical Context
XRP has actually been substantially closer to Bitcoin in the past. In early 2018, XRP's market cap reached $120 billion as the asset climbed to its then all-time high. Bitcoin's market cap at that time stood between $250 billion and $260 billion, making XRP worth almost 50% as much as Bitcoin.
Today, that ratio has declined to 5–6%, substantially narrowing the probability of a reversal. The relative decline underscores the difficulty of achieving the scenario Schwartz described.
