Gemini (GEMI) shares surged 31.15% on Friday, closing at $5.81 amid heavy trading volume of approximately 15.3 million shares, up from Thursday's $4.43 close. Despite the substantial single-day gain, the stock trades roughly 79% below its September 2025 IPO price of $28.
The cryptocurrency exchange's market capitalization has compressed to approximately $753 million from a peak valuation near $4 billion, reigniting investor speculation about potential acquisition scenarios. However, no confirmed takeover proposal has been announced, and there is no public indication that Gemini is actively engaged in sale discussions.
Operational Decline Shifts Focus to Regulatory Assets
Gemini's core exchange operations have weakened significantly. Second-quarter exchange revenue fell 38% year-over-year to $12.5 million, while spot trading activity plummeted 66% to $3.8 billion. Platform assets under custody declined from $18.2 billion to $8.4 million.
The company reported second-quarter revenue of $45.48 million against a net loss of $107.72 million, remaining unprofitable. These deteriorating metrics have shifted focus toward Gemini's regulatory infrastructure, custody operations, and established client relationships—assets that competing crypto firms would find difficult to replicate independently.
Winklevoss Brothers Control Majority Stake
Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss control approximately 94.5% of Gemini's voting shares, concentrating decision-making authority among two controlling shareholders. This ownership structure could streamline negotiations for a potential acquirer but renders hostile takeover attempts virtually impossible without their consent.
ARK Invest's digital assets research director has previously speculated that Hyperliquid might pursue an acquisition of Gemini, potentially leveraging it as a compliant U.S. gateway for perpetual futures and prediction markets. No concrete evidence suggests such discussions are underway. Previous acquisition discussions involving Gemini's shuttered European and U.K. entities failed to produce a transaction due to valuation disagreements.
