Recent Bitcoin rebounds remain local rallies rather than a broader trend reversal, according to on-chain analytics firm Glassnode. The asset continues to trade beneath the $68,500 Short-Term Holder Cost Basis and the $75,800 True Market Mean. Glassnode attributes the ongoing market weakness to rising Treasury yields and muted spot demand, keeping prices anchored near cycle lows until conditions shift.
Macro Conditions and Asset Divergence
Although the US dollar has weakened since July, higher Treasury yields have offset any supportive signals for risk assets. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed toward 4.7% in recent weeks, raising the cost of holding assets that generate no income. Meanwhile, gold climbed near $4,400 and oil traded in the mid-$80s, benefiting from demand for scarce, inflation-sensitive holdings. Bitcoin has lagged this move, continuing to trade more like a liquidity-driven risk instrument.
On-Chain Data and Market Capitulation
Bitcoin broke below its major cost basis levels in February 2026, prompting Glassnode's models to flag a bear market regime. Relative Unrealized Loss peaked near 25% during the current drawdown, which is far below the 60% figures seen in prior cycle bottoms. The Realized Profit/Loss Ratio sits at 0.75 on a 90-day basis, well above the sub-0.5 seller exhaustion threshold.
Derivatives and Spot Demand Dynamics
Derivative metrics show some improvements, as the 30-day Perpetual Market Directional Premium turned positive again with leveraged traders paying to hold long positions. However, the Coinbase Premium Index has stayed negative throughout consolidation, pointing to limited spot buying from US-based investors. Spot ETF flows have improved after heavy outflows in June and July, though consistent accumulation has yet to fully take hold. Meanwhile, implied volatility has compressed toward the lower end of its two-year range, with the DVOL reading sitting in the mid-30s.
