JPMorgan analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou say Bitcoin could draw more price support than gold if hedging demand in the ETF market eases, as short interest in BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) sits near its highest level of the year.
The put-to-call open interest ratio for IBIT runs above that of the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD), which analysts interpret as heavier hedging activity around Bitcoin. By contrast, short interest in GLD sits below its historical average.
IBIT's short base reached 45.9 million shares as of August 31, the highest reading of 2026 and up 23.8% from 37.1 million shares two weeks earlier. This position equals 3.53% of the fund's float and would require approximately 0.6 days of average trading volume to cover. At the end of March, the short base stood at 13 million shares, the year's low.
Inflows Follow Fed Action
Both Bitcoin and gold funds drew inflows following the Federal Reserve's late-July meeting, when investor focus shifted toward scarce assets amid US fiscal concerns. This rotation supported Bitcoin toward $80,000 and gold near $4,600 per ounce.
Momentum faded over the past week as inflation-adjusted bond yields rose and the Senate failed to advance the CLARITY Act in a procedural vote. Gold ETFs have recovered all outflows from earlier in the year, while Bitcoin funds have recaptured about half.
Volatile ETF Flows
US spot Bitcoin ETFs posted $236 million in outflows on September 1 before taking in $731 million on September 3, their strongest day since January. IBIT alone accounted for roughly $454 million of that inflow.
Net assets across US spot Bitcoin ETFs stood at $103.3 billion in early September, representing approximately 6% of Bitcoin's market capitalization.
