Morgan Stanley analyst Stephen Byrd calculated that U.S. data‑center developers could encounter a 70‑gigawatt power shortfall through 2028. The firm now projects total power demand for U.S. data centers at 97 GW by that year, a 43 % increase from its earlier estimate of 68 GW.
Shortfall calculations
The shortfall reflects demand outpacing supply as chip shipments and power‑intensive rack systems, including those from Nvidia, rise. Initial modeling placed the gap at roughly 57 GW; later revisions raised it to 70 GW. After accounting for onsite generation options such as gas turbines, Bloom Energy fuel cells and nuclear co‑location, Morgan Stanley estimates the net shortfall at about 33 GW, representing roughly 34 % of projected total demand.
Future outlook
Forward modeling suggests the gap could expand to between 68 GW and 72 GW by 2029 if supply constraints persist.
Implications for the AI build‑out
The research notes a shift in the primary bottleneck from chip supply chains to electricity availability. Major technology firms are seen as better positioned to secure power, while smaller developers may face delays due to limited leverage with utilities and less capital for onsite generation.
Potential role of Bitcoin mining sites
Converted Bitcoin mining facilities are mentioned as a possible ancillary solution. These sites already possess grid connections, power capacity and industrial infrastructure suited for heavy electrical loads, which could help narrow the overall gap.
