Traders on the prediction market Polymarket are pricing Bitcoin's chances of reaching $80,000 in September at 64%, according to the platform's live markets. The probability has declined nearly 30% since September 9.
Bitcoin came close to triggering the contract earlier today, reaching an intraday high of $79,505—just $495 short of the $80,000 threshold. The market resolves yes if even a single one-minute Binance BTC/USDT candle prints at or above $80,000 before 11:59 p.m. ET on September 30.
The contract was created on September 7. Earlier versions of the same question resolved as yes after Bitcoin traded at $81,265 on September 4 and $80,329 on September 7, though those price actions fall outside the current market's scope.
Broader Market Sentiment
Polymarket traders are also pricing other bitcoin price levels for the month:
- A dip to $75,000 at 68.5% probability
- A move to $72,500 at 40.5%
- A decline to $70,000 at 22.5%
- A rise to $82,500 at 39.5%
- A move to $85,000 at 23.5%
- A rise to $90,000 at 8.5%
The September $80,000 market has attracted significant trading activity, with approximately $5.17 million in total volume and about $1.46 million in liquidity, making it one of the more actively traded bitcoin price markets on the platform.
Upcoming Events
The remainder of September includes the Federal Open Market Committee meeting scheduled for September 15-16. Earlier in the month, jobless claims and inflation data releases landed on the hawkish side, with August core inflation coming in hotter than expected, which increased rate-hike odds.
