Bitcoin has risen 22% over the past 30 days and recently traded between $78,700 and $79,600, yet prediction market bettors are positioning for a cautious close to the year rather than a dramatic surge.
On Polymarket, approximately $63.92 million in betting volume shows traders giving bitcoin a 73% probability of reaching $85,000 by the end of 2026. Higher price targets face steeper odds: $100,000 carries just 26% probability, $120,000 stands at 10%, and $150,000 or above represents 3% or less.
Downside bets reflect similar caution, with $70,000 at 52% probability and $75,000 at 74%. The $60,000 level carries 25% odds, while $50,000 through $30,000 range from 15% to 4%.
On Kalshi, where $35 million has been wagered on year-end bitcoin pricing, the overall forecast centers around $81,000. The $75,000 to $79,999 range holds 12.5% probability, while $80,000 to $84,999 sits at 11.9%. Higher ranges show declining conviction: $90,000 to $94,999 at 7.7%, and $100,000 to $104,999 at just 3.7%.
A smaller market on Myriad with $235,000 in volume leans more bullish, pricing a move to $84,000 at roughly five times the probability of a decline to $55,000. A Kalshi market asking whether bitcoin hits $50,000 or $100,000 first shows 83% odds favoring $100,000 versus 18% for $50,000, with $831,848 in volume.
Overall, prediction market sentiment reflects a sideways trading outlook with volatility rather than conviction in a major rally or collapse through year-end.
