Prediction markets have expanded into mainstream media visibility, with odds now regularly featured on cable news and in financial research. Yet the conference organizers preparing to showcase the sector say media interest outpaces the actual scale of trading activity.
NEXTPredict, described as the first global B2B conference for prediction markets, runs October 22–23 at Convene in Hudson Yards, New York. The event features CNBC correspondent Contessa Brewer and CNN senior reporter Marshall Cohen on the program, alongside exchange representatives and industry executives. Organizers expect more than 50 speakers and 2,500 attendees.
NEXT.io co-founder Pierre Lindh told PredictCentr that prediction market stories appeal to audiences far larger than trading volumes suggest, and historically "nobody was serving it with real journalistic standards." He noted a tension in conference programming: the content likely to attract national media coverage differs from the market structure topics that paying delegates want to discuss.
User Base Lags Media Presence
The gap between media attention and actual participation is substantial. Polymarket's monthly active users, measured as unique addresses making revenue-generating transactions, sit around 283,300, down from above 750,000 in the spring. Activity spikes around major events but typically does not sustain.
Kalshi reported acquiring 3 million new users during the 2026 World Cup, with more than $1.2 billion traded on the tournament winner contract, a single-market record. However, trading volume on non-match days ran considerably lower than on match days.
Most retail money entering prediction markets comes from existing crypto traders rather than new participants. A survey by Langston Co. projects the share of crypto traders using prediction markets rising from 22 percent to 27 percent, with participants drawn more by short-term upside than by conviction in forecasts.
Market Structure and Professionalization
Research suggests prediction market data is increasingly adopted by professional traders and institutions. Federal Reserve researchers found that Kalshi's macroeconomic contracts matched conventional forecasting benchmarks and beat the Bloomberg consensus on headline consumer price index figures.
Concentration of profits remains high. Analysis of $13.76 billion in Polymarket trades found that 3 percent of accounts captured roughly 27 percent of dollar profits. Yale economist Theis Jensen expects this concentration to decline as institutional competition addresses mispricing.
Conference Program and Regulatory Focus
Two serving directors from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission are confirmed for NEXTPredict: David Miller from enforcement and Duncan Hennes from market participants. Executives from DraftKings, Robinhood, Kalshi, Cboe, and other firms are also scheduled.
Insider trading has been designated its own conference session, chaired by WilmerHale attorney Matthew Kulkin. Lindh identified insider trading as "the most exposed point" and "the most difficult point to resolve" for the industry.
Organizers have hedged the conference itself, purchasing $3 million in coverage on Kalshi's flight cancellation market for a $12,000 premium, with Susquehanna serving as market maker. The trade pays if more than half of arrivals into JFK are canceled on October 21.
