Bitcoin’s price stood at $75,723 on Saturday, November 7, 2026, down 2.4% over the past week and 6.6% over the month. Prediction‑market data from Polymarket, Kalshi and Myriad indicate that market participants expect further downside pressure before the year ends.
Polymarket focuses on price‑threshold contracts
On Polymarket, the contract that pays out if Bitcoin touches $70,000 carries a 52% implied probability, the highest among more than 46 price targets. Probabilities for lower thresholds are 31% for $65,000 and 18% for $60,000. By contrast, the chance of hitting $90,000 before January is 24%, dropping to 13% at $95,000 and 9% at $100,000.
Kalshi’s year‑end range contracts
Kalshi’s settlement contracts, which determine Bitcoin’s closing price on December 31 using the CME CF Bitcoin Real Time Index, place the $75,000‑$79,999.99 range at 17.6% probability and the $70,000‑$74,999.99 range at 17.5%. Together, the two leading brackets account for 35.1% of the implied probability, suggesting a concentration around the current market level.
Short‑term November contracts signal caution
Polymarket’s November contracts assign an 81% probability to Bitcoin touching $77,500 and 56% to $80,000 before the end of the month, but only 23% for $85,000 and 9% for $90,000. Downside contracts show a 61% chance of reaching $72,500 and 43% for $70,000.
Kalshi’s November high‑price contracts give a 35% probability of exceeding $82,500, 21% for $85,000 and 15% for $87,500.
Limited activity on smaller platforms
Myriad’s November markets have very low trading volume—about $96 for upside contracts and $5.68 for downside contracts—making their odds less reliable. Nonetheless, they show a 43% chance of a $70,000 dip and a 61% chance of $72,500.
Overall market sentiment
The combined data suggest that traders view another decline to around $70,000 as more likely than a rebound to six‑figure levels before the end of 2026. While these contracts reflect participants’ willingness to pay rather than guaranteed outcomes, the prevailing sentiment is one of caution.
