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Strategy's Bitcoin Threshold Model Shows 83% Price Decline Needed for STRC 1x Rating

Strategy Inc. published a chart showing bitcoin would need to fall 83% to reach a 1x BTC Rating for its STRC security, illustrating the relationship between bitcoin price and the company's capital structure obligations.
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Strategy's Bitcoin Threshold Model Shows 83% Price Decline Needed for STRC 1x Rating

Strategy Inc. (Nasdaq: MSTR) published a chart on September 1 outlining the bitcoin price thresholds at which each of its securities would reach a 1x BTC Rating under the company's internal calculation model. According to the chart, bitcoin would need to fall 83% from current levels before STRC reaches this threshold of $13,136.

A 1x BTC Rating indicates that the modeled value of Strategy's bitcoin reserve equals the notional debt and preferred-stock claims attributed to that security. The company emphasized that reaching a 1x rating does not signal that STRC would default, cease dividend payments, or trade at any particular price.

Different Thresholds Across Securities

Each of Strategy's securities has a distinct threshold based on its share of the company's capital structure. The published thresholds included $1,519 for STRF, $13,136 for STRC, $14,198 for STRE, $15,857 for STRK, and $17,517 for STRD. Debt reached a 1x threshold at zero under the model.

Strategy noted that the BTC Rating is illustrative in nature, not an external credit rating. The metric excludes potential cross-defaults and does not measure available cash for dividends, market values of securities, or recovery potential during restructuring.

Capital Holdings and Recent Activity

As of August 30, Strategy held 845,050 BTC and $6.71 billion in dollar assets. The company reported a $152 million STRC repurchase on August 31 and allocated an additional $30 million to USD Cash, bringing that balance to $1.61 billion. In its latest bitcoin purchase, Strategy acquired 4,603 BTC for approximately $369.7 million at an average price of $80,318 per coin.

Limitations of the Model

Strategy cautioned that the thresholds represent a snapshot rather than fixed protection levels. Future bitcoin purchases or sales, preferred-stock issuance or repurchases, debt changes, and movements in dollar assets could alter the calculations even if bitcoin's market price remained unchanged. The company also stated that BTC Rating is neither a liquidity measure nor a key performance indicator.

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