A historical analysis of bitcoin price movements reveals a counterintuitive pattern: investors waiting for a 30% decline to buy often ended up paying higher prices than if they had purchased at an earlier high.
Adam Livingston, vice president of investments at Strive Inc., examined 216 new 52-week closing highs between January 2017 and October 2025. His model tested the strategy of waiting for a 30% pullback from subsequent peaks before entering a position. In 61% of the cases tested, the modeled purchase price exceeded the original high being skipped.
Why Smaller Declines Failed More Often
The timing and magnitude of declines created the disparity. A 30% pullback took a median of 134 days to occur, with some cases extending to 881 days. During this waiting period, bitcoin frequently climbed well beyond the earlier high before declining from that later peak.
Smaller pullbacks showed similar patterns. A 10% dip arrived after a median 14 days but exceeded the original price in 57% of cases. A 20% decline took a median 44 days and produced higher entries in 52% of cases.
When the Strategy Worked
When waiting for a 30% dip did result in a lower entry, the median discount reached 19% below the original high. Conversely, when the strategy produced a higher purchase price, the median premium was 76% above the starting point.
Bitcoin's recent price action provided an example of the strategy's potential benefit. The cryptocurrency reached above $126,000 in October 2025 before declining substantially. By June 30, bitcoin had fallen below $58,000, less than half its October peak, offering a buyer who waited a significantly lower entry point.
Livingston's analysis depends on daily closing prices and specific methodology for measuring declines from subsequent highs. The percentages represent historical outcomes within the tested dataset and should not be interpreted as predictive of future results or independent market cycles.
