SUI has been consolidating below $0.90 after a 10% drop following the Binance hack, with the market still on edge as it digests the hack, the U.S. midterms, and fragile geopolitical conditions.
Q3 gains largely erased in Q4
In September, SUI doubled from $0.63 to nearly $1.3, posting a 103% gain in Q3. It has erased over half of these gains in October, bringing Q4 losses to 34%. One crucial line could determine whether the pullback stops or deepens.
The $0.84 level was a key ceiling and roadblock in Q3. If bulls defend it, a recovery may be feasible, but a strong uptrend will be only confirmed if price climbs above $0.95.
Downside risk if $0.84 fails
On the other hand, dropping below $0.84 would bring SUI back to its Q3 price range of $0.66-$0.84. In such a scenario, if market sentiment weakens in Q4, especially with a likely Fed rate hike in December, then SUI price may hit the lower bound of $0.66.
That would be a downside risk of 10% ($0.75) or 21% if the drop extends to the lower bound at $0.66. In other words, short sellers may still profit from SUI if market sentiment sours further in Q4.
Liquidation maps point to key zones
On the liquidation maps, the upside liquidity pools (leveraged shorts) were between $0.91 and $0.97, aligning with the red zone marked on the price charts. A liquidity hunt may push the price to this area, but a decisive rebound would be possible if bulls stay above $0.95.
On the lower side, the liquidity pools (leveraged longs) were concentrated between $0.77 and $0.82, underscoring the possibility of price falling back to the Q3 price range if market sentiment worsens.
Outlook
Taken together, SUI may continue to consolidate current Q3 and Binance hack-driven losses below $0.90. However, if U.S. midterm results and geopolitical tensions drive another risk-off move, there is a chance SUI could slip back to the Q3 price range and extend Q4 losses.
- SUI consolidated below $0.90 as of Q3, and Binance hack-driven losses hit 34%.
- There is a 10%-21% downside risk in Q4 if market sentiment weakens.
