November opened with sharp volatility across global markets, and the selling has spilled into crypto at a delicate moment for sentiment.
Over the past 24 hours, markets in the U.S., Japan, South Korea, China and Taiwan combined to wipe $1.7 trillion off their market capitalization, according to the source material. Tech stocks were hit particularly hard after a flurry of earnings reports revived the “AI bubble” narrative.
The clearest illustration of how quickly sentiment turned came from Alphabet, which lost more than 12% of its market value as AI expectations collided with earnings reality.
Election risk adds to the macro backdrop
The timing of the sell-off is adding another layer of pressure to crypto. According to the Kobeissi Letter, the probability of a Democratic sweep in next week's U.S. mid-term elections rose by 7% to a record high of 72% over the last two days, even as markets accelerated their decline.
That leaves investors contending with high rates, a falling stock market, oil prices above $100, and rising CPI, PPI and PCE inflation readings — a combination that adds macroeconomic uncertainty for crypto heading into the vote.
Crypto's 2022 playbook returns
The market is not entirely bearish, but the pressure is visible. More than a year after the October 2025 crash hit risk assets, Bitcoin remains down over 30% from its pre-crash high of $126K.
With FUD surrounding the U.S. mid-terms, a Binance hack and the recent tech sell-off, the question of whether crypto has found its bottom is back in focus.
The 2022 cycle offers one reference point. Then, the FTX collapse came roughly a year after Bitcoin's November 2021 high, lining up with the cycle bottom in late Q4 2022, when BTC dropped to $16K. What followed was a 155% rally, then another 120% run that pushed Bitcoin close to $108K by 2024.
On that historical reading, Bitcoin falling below $80K alongside the broader market sell-off could allude to the later phases of a crypto bottom, with the market potentially entering a final stage of capitulation before a bounce back.
What to watch into year-end
- Whether the risk-off trend persists through year-end, which the source suggests is likely before any 2023-style uptrend.
- How macro conditions — rates, oil, inflation prints and mid-term election odds — evolve in the coming days.
- Whether Bitcoin holds above or breaks below the $80K level cited as a possible marker of a late-stage bottom.
For now, weak tech earnings and AI bubble fears have driven a $1.7 trillion market sell-off, and crypto is absorbing the spillover while recovery remains some distance away.
