Ripple's XRP is trading near $1.25 after failing to break above the upper boundary of its short-term descending channel, leaving the token in a Fibonacci support area that could determine whether its August recovery holds or gives way to a deeper retracement.
Daily Chart: Retracing the August Rally
On the daily timeframe, XRP is retracing the sharp move from the $0.99 August low to a $1.70 high, which stalled just below the major $1.7-$1.8 supply zone. Since that peak, the asset has printed lower highs, losing the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement at $1.34 earlier this month and drifting back toward the $1.25 support zone.
That area is significant because it coincides with the 0.618 retracement level and a prior demand zone from mid-September. Yesterday's candle briefly dipped to approximately $1.20, tagging the 0.702 level, before buyers pushed the price back toward $1.25. The long lower wick suggests demand is responding, though the daily close has yet to confirm a successful defense of the zone.
Levels to Watch on the Daily
- If $1.25 holds, XRP would first need to reclaim the $1.34 Fibonacci level and then the $1.40 supply zone, where the latest rebound was rejected.
- A decisive daily close below $1.20 would expose the $1.10-$1.14 demand zone, which overlaps with the 0.786 retracement.
- That lower area would represent the market's last line of defense before XRP erases all of its gains since August.
4-Hour Chart: Descending Channel Intact
The 4-hour timeframe shows XRP trading within a descending channel since its late-September peak near $1.65. The latest rally attempt was rejected at the upper boundary around $1.33, extending the sequence of lower highs and lower lows that has defined the structure throughout October.
That rejection pushed the price through the $1.25 demand zone, with a wick to roughly $1.20 before a modest recovery. XRP is now hovering around the lower edge of the zone, meaning buyers are attempting to reclaim it rather than defend it from above. Failure to do so would raise the risk that sellers turn the area into resistance.
Short-Term Scenarios
A recovery back above $1.28 could open the way toward the upper channel boundary, currently near $1.3, and the $1.4 supply zone beyond it. On the other hand, renewed weakness below $1.20 would likely bring the channel's lower boundary near $1.17 into play.
Overall, the short-term pattern still favors sellers. A meaningful shift in structure would require XRP to break above the descending channel and reclaim the $1.40 supply zone, while the $1.20 low remains the key level buyers need to protect.
