US President Donald Trump has proposed distributing $5,000 to every adult American citizen if Republicans maintain control of Congress after midterm elections. With approximately 245 million citizens aged 18 and above, the program would cost an estimated $1.2 trillion.
The proposal has sparked debate about its potential effects on financial markets, particularly cryptocurrency. Three major AI platforms offered different perspectives on how such a stimulus might impact Bitcoin.
ChatGPT: Initial Rally, Then Correction Risk
ChatGPT predicted Bitcoin would experience a strong initial surge if the payments were distributed. Even if only a small portion of the $5,000 went to cryptocurrency purchases, the impact could move prices upward. The platform suggested that announcement alone could trigger speculation, with traders potentially buying Bitcoin and other risk assets before payments reach accounts.
However, ChatGPT warned of longer-term complications. If the program were financed through additional government borrowing during economic weakness, it could fuel inflation and prompt Federal Reserve policy adjustments. Higher yields and tighter monetary policy typically hurt speculative assets.
"Bitcoin might therefore surge initially, then experience a sharp correction if the bond market or Fed pushed back," ChatGPT concluded, noting that inflation supports Bitcoin's "digital gold" narrative while restrictive Fed policy works against speculative holdings.
Perplexity: Short-Term Positive, Not a Trigger
Perplexity called such stimulus "mildly bullish" for Bitcoin in the short term but cautioned it would not serve as "a standalone bull market trigger." Like ChatGPT, the platform said long-term effects would depend heavily on Federal Reserve actions and overall economic conditions.
Gemini: Comparison to COVID Stimulus
Google's Gemini compared Trump's proposal to COVID-19 relief packages distributed in 2020 and 2021. During that period, some recipients used portions of stimulus payments to purchase Bitcoin. The cryptocurrency fell below $5,000 in March 2020 before reaching nearly $70,000 approximately 18 months later.
Gemini noted that a $5,000 payout per American would total $1.2 trillion, exceeding all three COVID checks combined. "If passed, it would likely trigger an even more substantial rally for BTC than the one from 2021," Gemini predicted.
