With the U.S. midterm elections scheduled for November 3, investors are watching how the results could influence Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. Bitcoin is trading near $78,299, up 0.79% over the past 24 hours, after a 7.3% decline in October.
Historical performance around midterm elections
Bitcoin has tended to fall in the months leading up to the four previous U.S. midterm elections since 2010. Notable declines include more than 48% in 2014, 37% in 2018, and 16% in 2022. As of now, Bitcoin is down 7.3% ahead of the November 3, 2026 election.
Analyst expectations
Crypto chart analyst Ali Martinez anticipates another decline, suggesting a potential correction of around 30% that could bring the price near $57,000.
Legislative context
The election will decide control of the House of Representatives and the Senate, shaping leadership of key financial committees and future cryptocurrency legislation. The CLARITY Act, which failed to pass the Senate on September 15 with a 50‑49 vote, required 60 votes to advance. A Republican‑controlled Congress could pursue clearer regulatory rules for the crypto industry, while the outcome will also affect oversight by the SEC and CFTC.
According to a Public Citizen Research report, the crypto industry has spent more than $206 million on the 2026 U.S. midterm elections.
Market participant survey
A Bloomberg survey of 301 market participants asked respondents to forecast Bitcoin’s year‑end price under three possible election outcomes:
- Republican control: 43% expect Bitcoin to finish at $100,000 or less, while 29% anticipate it rising above $100,000.
- Democratic control: 55% expect Bitcoin to fall to between $60,000 and its current level, and 16% foresee a drop below $60,000.
- Split Congress: 40% expect Bitcoin to end at $100,000 or less, and 42% expect it to fall to between $60,000 and its current level.
Prediction‑market platforms Polymarket and Kalshi indicate a 73% perceived chance of Democrats winning the Senate and a 94% chance of taking control of the House.
Short‑term technical outlook
Bitcoin’s 24‑hour trading volume has risen 41% to $15.11 billion. To sustain its short‑term recovery, the price needs to hold the $77,000 support zone and retake $79,100. A break below $75,000 could shift focus to the $72,000 level.
Long‑term perspective
Historically, Bitcoin has performed better in the months following midterm elections, gaining an average of 53.7% over the 12 months after past elections.
