More than 57.5 million early ballots have been counted as the United States heads to the November 3, 2026 midterm elections, a cycle described as the highest‑stakes in years for digital‑asset legislation.
Early Vote Totals and Senate Battlegrounds
The University of Florida Election Lab reported 57,530,789 early votes, about 11.5 million more than the total early vote count in the 2022 midterms. Early voting surges were strongest in Senate races that could affect chamber control, including Texas, Ohio, Michigan, North Carolina, Georgia, Iowa and Kansas.
Current Congressional Balance
Republicans hold a 53–47 advantage in the Senate and a narrow House majority of roughly 218–214. Democrats would need a net gain of four Senate seats while defending their existing seats to flip the upper chamber.
Market Expectations
Prediction markets have priced the races tightly. Polymarket odds for a Democratic House were near 94–95 % on Election Day morning, while Senate odds settled around 74–77 %. Kalshi assigned a combined probability of roughly 75–77 % to a Democratic sweep of both chambers. In Michigan, markets priced the Democratic nominee at about 82 % despite a recent GOP endorsement of the Republican candidate.
Legislative Implications for Crypto
The outcome directly influences the revival of the CLARITY Act, which depends on Senate composition. A Republican‑held Senate would keep the path open for the bill, while a Democratic gain of four or more seats could shift committee dynamics and delay market‑structure legislation into 2027 or later.
The SEC has already delayed an XRP ETF filing, a move attributed to pre‑election regulatory caution. Industry donors, including Coinbase, Ripple and the Winklevoss twins, have contributed significant funds to the election cycle.
Additional Election Developments
President Donald Trump issued a final campaign statement on Election Eve, urging voter turnout. The Supreme Court rejected a Trump administration request to segregate approximately 20,000 California mail ballots, and a federal judge dismissed a DOJ effort to delay certification of the Alaska Senate race.
Polling locations begin closing as early as 6 p.m. ET in parts of Indiana and Kentucky, with final results expected throughout the night and into early morning for Alaska.
