Bets were placed on prediction markets shortly before the release of two recent New York Times/Siena political polls, according to a New York Times report, raising questions about whether traders had access to nonpublic information.
Vanderbilt University researchers said a Polymarket user bet almost $200,000 on Oct. 31 that Nebraska Senator Pete Ricketts would be re-elected. An hour later, a Times/Siena poll was released showing Ricketts in the lead. The Friday report said it was not clear whether the user had access to inside information, but that the bettor won more than $77,000.
The same user also placed similar large bets on other markets, including Kalshi, according to the report.
Investigation under way
"There's a series of circumstances here that it's hard to write it off as a random occurrence," Brett Goldstein of the Vanderbilt Institute of National Security said, adding that the matter "requires further investigation."
Polymarket said it had spotted the trades and was investigating. Kalshi declined to comment.
Earlier case involved US Army soldier
Cointelegraph reported in April that a US Army soldier had been charged after making more than $400,000 by betting on a prediction market allegedly using nonpublic information tied to a US operation involving then Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.
In a statement, the Department of Justice alleged that Master Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke was involved in the planning and execution of Operation Absolute Resolve, which led to the capture of Maduro at a residence in Caracas, Venezuela, in January. Van Dyke allegedly used this information to buy "yes" shares in related Polymarket contracts, including "Maduro out by January 31" and "Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by January 31," according to the DOJ.
