Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin says he is wagering roughly 90% of his net worth against a prediction that artificial intelligence will cause Bitcoin's price to crash by half within two years.
Angel investor Liron Shapira, host of the Doom Debates podcast, posted on September 6 that he assigns 50% odds to AI breaking Bitcoin's security and triggering a 50% price decline within two years. Buterin responded the following day, stating he takes "the opposite side" of that forecast.
Buterin's Assessment of AI Risk
Buterin outlined his reasoning in two parts. He expressed optimism about long-term cybersecurity and noted that Bitcoin can address most issues without fundamental changes to its protocol. For problems requiring client upgrades or mining pool updates—what he termed "network-layer hacks"—developers can deploy patches without social consensus.
The primary risk Buterin identified as "tiny" is an actual break in SHA-256 cryptography or proof-of-work mechanisms, which would require a hard fork and broader agreement to implement.
Interpreting the Wager
Shapira's claim focuses on market perception as much as technical vulnerability. His framing references "what people imagined were" Bitcoin's security guarantees, suggesting a price collapse could stem from loss of confidence rather than an actual cryptographic break.
Buterin emphasized that his existing holdings—primarily Ethereum—already represent an implicit bet on the security of shared cryptographic assumptions. A hash-level attack affecting Bitcoin would similarly compromise Ethereum, he noted.
Broader Context
Buterin pointed to recent advances in cryptographic techniques, including succinct proofs and fully homomorphic encryption, as evidence that cryptography evolves as old assumptions erode. Ethereum's roadmap, updated in August, prioritized quantum safety preparation for similar reasons.
At the time of the exchange, Bitcoin was trading near $80,000, following a three-month high of $82,239.
