Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has pushed back against predictions that artificial intelligence could trigger a major Bitcoin crash, arguing he remains confident in the network's long-term security resilience.
The disagreement centers on a 50% probability assessment from Silicon Valley investor Liron Shapiro, who warned that Bitcoin could fall more than 50% over the next two years as AI undermines perceived network security guarantees. Buterin took the opposing view, saying he is "quite optimistic about cybersecurity in the long term."
The Nature of the Disagreement
Buterin argued that Bitcoin should handle security failures that do not require social consensus, including attacks on clients, mining pools, and network infrastructure. He placed a very low probability on AI producing a fundamental break in Bitcoin's hashing functions or proof-of-work system.
When asked about a formal wager, Buterin noted that his existing crypto holdings already amount to roughly 90% of his net worth, effectively making that bet already. He suggested the same argument should apply to Ethereum.
Shapiro's position does not require AI to break Bitcoin's underlying cryptography. Instead, a wave of attacks exposing previously assumed difficult-to-exploit weaknesses could damage investor confidence, even if developers eventually repair the vulnerabilities.
AI Pressure on Crypto Infrastructure
Recent incidents suggest the threat Shapiro warned about is already becoming operational. In August, Bitcoin swap provider Boltz suspended its service indefinitely after automated, AI-assisted probing led to several exploits that moved faster than its development team could patch.
Though Boltz's non-custodial architecture protected customer funds, the company absorbed losses and concluded it could no longer safely operate. The episode demonstrated how AI could pressure surrounding infrastructure without compromising proof-of-work or the network's cryptography itself.
Deddy David, chief executive of blockchain security firm Cyvers, previously stated that financial exposure from AI-powered crypto attacks could eventually reach hundreds of millions or billions of dollars. The risk extends across wallets, bridges, exchanges, smart contracts, and blockchain network software.
Defensive Measures Expanding
The technology industry is increasingly developing defensive capabilities alongside offensive AI advancement. Anthropic has restricted public access to its Claude Mythos model due to its ability to autonomously discover and weaponize software vulnerabilities, instead directing those capabilities toward defenders through Project Glasswing.
The program involves technology companies and financial institutions including Amazon Web Services, Google, Microsoft, and JPMorgan Chase, with Anthropic committing as much as $100 million in usage credits.
More than 100 organizations, including Google, Microsoft, Anthropic, OpenAI, Capital One, Mastercard, Visa, Adobe, Oracle, and IBM, signed an open letter warning that AI-enabled cyberattacks are likely to become substantially more widespread and sophisticated within months. The signatories called for governments and technology companies to provide advanced defensive AI and security testing to organizations including hospitals and water utilities.
Crypto faces this challenge with an additional complication: many of its systems hold immediately transferable financial assets and operate continuously on publicly visible infrastructure, making the window between offensive and defensive capability gains a critical factor in the outcome.
