Zcash is trading at $1,333.50, down 7.29% on the day and approximately 21% below the $1,698.00 peak it reached in late September. The decline comes after the privacy coin climbed roughly 253% from a $480.72 base to that high.
Grayscale's Zcash ETF, ticker ZCSH, launched on August 25 and had accumulated $233 million in net inflows by mid-September. On September 30, the fund recorded a $30.25 million net outflow, bringing cumulative net inflows to approximately $268 million. A 3-for-1 share split took effect the same morning.
Market Context and Sentiment Factors
The wider market provided little support. Bitcoin spiked to $85,600 on Wednesday following softer-than-expected inflation data but subsequently retreated. The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.29%, and odds of an October Federal Reserve rate hike fell from 70% to below 50%, according to CME FedWatch data.
Additional headwinds include a September 24 hack on Bitget exchange that resulted in approximately $387 million stolen. Blockchain investigator ZachXBT flagged 2,746 ZEC, valued at approximately $3.9 million, moving from hack-linked addresses into Zcash's shielded pool. While this sum is relatively small, it adds to negative sentiment around the asset.
Technical Analysis
Technical indicators present a mixed picture. The Relative Strength Index stands at 50.2, indicating neutral momentum—neither overbought nor oversold. The Average Directional Index reads 52.0, reflecting a very strong trend that has primarily captured the recent vertical advance and typically lags price movements.
The 50-day exponential moving average remains above the 200-day EMA, maintaining a bullish trend structure on paper. A sustained crash would be required for these lines to converge, which typically signals a trend change.
Historical Context
A 21% pullback following a 253% advance is not unusual for the asset. In June, Zcash dropped from $635 to an intraday low of $309 following disclosure of a critical vulnerability in its shielded pool, then climbed past $1,600.
Technical support sits near $1,233.00, while reclamation of $1,410.72 would put the recent rally back on track.
