Arthur Hayes, the BitMEX co-founder who now runs family office Maelstrom, argues that share unlocks following the listings of AI companies SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI could dilute stock prices, choke AI credit, and shrink bank balance sheets—a key driver of crypto liquidity.
How Bank Balance Sheets Connect AI Stocks to Crypto
In a Nov. 5 newsletter, Hayes laid out a thesis that builds on his earlier warning about bank balance sheets and Bitcoin. He contends that banks, not the Federal Reserve, create credit, and that Bitcoin holders feel changes in dollar liquidity through those balance sheets.
According to Hayes, banks fund AI through loans, margin financing for stock traders, and purchases for their own books. Weaker share prices would therefore raise borrowing costs for AI labs, he argues, because debt buyers take cues from equity signals.
Dilution Estimates for SpaceX and Anthropic
Hayes says SpaceX’s tradable shares have grown 50% since its listing while the stock has stalled. He estimates that Anthropic faces 83% dilution by June 2027 following its planned initial public offering. At a $1.5 trillion valuation, holding the price flat would require roughly $1.245 trillion in new capital, he calculates.
Meanwhile, Anthropic’s amended IPO filing showed a $567 million third-quarter operating loss. Adjusted operating income, which excludes stock-based pay and donation charges, remained positive at $2.46 billion.
Hayes Expects a Credit Scare, Urges Patience
Hayes anticipates that a credit scare could force central banks to print money, a scenario he sees as favorable for Bitcoin. He urges patience. However, he concedes that the latest weekly dip in bank balance sheets is a single data point.
In contrast, Real Vision chief executive Raoul Pal rejects the debt concern, noting that hyperscaler debt equals about 3.5% of those companies’ market value. Still, hyperscalers—the cloud giants building AI data centers—are a different group from the three labs Hayes targets.
The newsletter also discloses that Maelstrom advises Genlayer, an AI project preparing a token launch, and names Flop Network, an unlaunched blockchain for AI compute, as a beneficiary. Last month, Hayes liquidated roughly $22.28 million in crypto and said he would watch from the sidelines.
Anthropic’s listing will test whether AI financing and crypto liquidity continue to draw on the same banks.
