Bitcoin (BTC) has rebounded from $76,000 to around $78,490, but the recovery is struggling to attract stronger participation from U.S. buyers, leaving an important source of market demand largely absent.
U.S. demand remains weak
The Coinbase premium index, which measures the difference between the price on Coinbase and Binance, has remained in negative territory for an extended period. This indicates that the U.S. has continued to exert selling pressure against the amount of demand from U.S. buyers.
Notably, the index showed a negative reading even when Bitcoin was rising toward $87,000 in September, implying that other regions of the world were supporting price appreciation at that time.
If this trend persists, it could cap the size of Bitcoin’s next advance, limiting recovery strength and exposing Bitcoin to further selling. Conversely, a sustained move above zero would indicate that U.S. demand is beginning to return.
Early signs of demand recovery
The combined spot and futures demand indicator for Bitcoin over a 30-day window is currently reporting a decline toward a reading of -200,000 BTC, reflecting continued net outflows from the global market.
However, this week’s reading has shown some improvement as spot demand has become increasingly less negative, indicating that sellers appear to be slowing down their sales momentum.
This disparity explains why it continues to be difficult for Bitcoin to maintain its current recovery amid easing downside pressure. On the other hand, declining negative demand could provide stability in terms of maintaining current prices around $77,000.
Ultimately, a sustained return to positive total demand for Bitcoin would significantly improve the prospects for a successful recovery, particularly if spot buying resumes.
$79K resistance tests recovery strength
Although Bitcoin demand shows early signs of stabilization, its price structure still reflects considerable selling pressure. The rebound from $76,000 to around $78,490 remains gradual, suggesting short-term recovery and reduced selling rather than strong new buying.
The rebound now faces a critical test near $79,000, where previous support has turned into resistance. Closing prices above $79,200 could lead to higher prices such as $80,400 and $82,000. On the other hand, if prices are rejected at this level, BTC may decline toward $76,975 and possibly lower toward $76,000.
Overall, Bitcoin must regain the $79,200 price level in order to fortify its current recovery. Failure to do so could result in continued control of the broader downtrend.
