Arthur Hayes, the BitMEX co-founder and Maelstrom CIO, has identified a new short-term risk for Bitcoin: equity dilution at major AI and space companies. In an essay titled “D is for Dilution” released on November 5, 2026, Hayes argues that massive share unlocks tied to SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI could squeeze dollar liquidity, which he sees as bearish for Bitcoin now but potentially bullish if it triggers a central bank response later.
The dilution math
Hayes estimates that SpaceX could face roughly 50% additional dilution by June 2027, driven by approximately 8.6 billion shares set to unlock in that window, mostly from Elon Musk’s vesting. SpaceX listed on the Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX in June 2026, with an IPO priced at $135 per share that raised about $75 billion and valued the company at $1.77 trillion.
Anthropic’s early backers may face even greater dilution. Hayes estimates those investors could see as much as 83% dilution by June 2027. The company has already filed its S-1 and is targeting a public debut in November 2026. OpenAI has pushed its IPO into 2027, keeping a third giant listing in the pipeline.
How share unlocks become a Bitcoin problem
Hayes outlines a chain of effects. First, a flood of new shares is expected to weigh on the stock prices of these companies, which he argues would dampen enthusiasm about AI profitability more broadly. Second, weaker equity valuations could raise borrowing costs for AI-focused businesses, with stress potentially spreading to data centers and chipmakers through wider credit spreads or debt investors getting cold feet.
Third, and most important for crypto, falling equity values could slow the growth of bank balance sheets. When banks expand less, fewer dollars circulate through the system. Hayes notes this would coincide with a cooling in AI-related lending and securities financing. Bitcoin has historically traded as a liquidity sponge, soaking up excess dollars when they are plentiful. Shrinking dollar liquidity, then, is the setup Hayes flags as an immediate bearish signal for Bitcoin and the wider crypto market.
He has made a related argument before, previously saying that AI capital expenditures had absorbed approximately $1.5 trillion of M2 money supply growth since late 2022.
The long game: waiting for the Big Print
Hayes contends that if AI-sector credit stress turns into a genuine crisis, central banks and governments could step in with easing measures or fiscal support. He calls that scenario “the Big Print.” The road map he sketches is a dip before a rip: near-term pain from tighter liquidity, followed by a potential policy response that could push capital back toward hard-capped assets.
His own fund is acting accordingly. As of November 5, 2026, Maelstrom is sitting on the sidelines, waiting for clearer signs that liquidity is improving before jumping back in.
What this means for investors
For crypto traders, the essay offers a calendar of sorts. The key dates cluster around Anthropic’s targeted November 2026 debut and the June 2027 horizon Hayes cites for both SpaceX and Anthropic dilution. If Hayes is right, the signals to watch are not on crypto charts at all. They are in AI credit spreads, the borrowing costs of data center operators and chipmakers, and the pace of US bank balance sheet growth.
For equity investors, the takeaway is more direct. Headline valuations like SpaceX’s $1.77 trillion tell only part of the story when billions of additional shares may be on the way.
